2012年11月3日星期六

Axion Power wow gold ideal Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries

Axion believes it will win the performance battle. I will simply take 10% of the S/S market and be happy.

To late to edit Jakurtz so I wanted to add why I am buying now. For so long the potential of price appreciation was completely up in the air. The NS order, the Powercube opportunities, Vani coming on board, the later OTR order (fingers crossed) makes buying now so much more compelling than when we just exercised blind faith for so long. .40-.45 looks strongly like a bottom to me and Vani is going to want those paychecks to keep coming. I am sure he'll move heaven and earth to see that that happens. I think it is a safe move with a great possibility for an outstanding upside gain. A hell of a lot if the risk (while still there) has been substantially reduced. Then there is TG's expectation of 300% YOY sales growth and breakeven in 2013. If that turns out to be the case (and I have no reason to question it at the moment) then buying today is an absolutely no brainer.

I believe we have to be careful who we attribute comments to. I don't believe I can find anywhere in a cc or otherwise that TG said they would not do the financing until a $75M EV. 300% revenue growth would amount to an increase of $24 million over the $8 million generated in 2011. Without further guidance on "product" mix any and all scenarios to 300% revenue growth are speculative. JP has offered one reasoned speculation projecting continuation of toll contract revenue growth at rates observed in 2011 (40% per quarter). JP estimated Q4 toll contract revenues as running at roughly $10 million annual rate. Quarterly growth of 40% would generate ~$19 million for the year which would, by itself, amount to 133+% growth in revenues over 2011 from all sources. We know of a firm $0.5 million in PbC sales to NSC and expectations of selling at least another $0.9 million for OTR locomotives this year. PowerCube sales to PV and/or Wind Farms as well as to industrial firms are definite possibilities. Granville said Axion does not currently need money. He does not expect the offering to occur within the next two months. The ability to have the shelf offering, which this time will be public rather than private, will expire on March 15, 2012. Granville stated that if the offering does occur, if Axion needs more money, it will be after a, "Price spike," he said, getting the valuation over $75,000,000. That's potentially a tradeable barometer, for those whom want to trade rather than hold this stock. ####There is likely no way TG at this time would know, or could have anticipated that Special Situations would change management, which led to SS's decision to liquidate Axion shares. He knows what's in the "pipeline."

In all seriousness I have no problem hearing opposing views. What I want most though are balanced views. All one side "gung ho" and all negative on the other side leaves you unsure of anything. I think there is nothing wrong with fully discussing the risks. What I would like is a debate about what those risks are and the degree of risk for each. I think if some bright person put together a decent laundry list of risks for Axion in a header and if all the Axionista's debated those risks it would provide the balance you might want. The biggest risks in my view are something could go wrong with the NS field test, nobody buys a powercube (either fixed or mobile) all year, or BMW announces a multi-year contract with someone other than Axion for stop start batteries for all models. Axion could also unexpectedly lose a key executive, the facility burns down, a tornado rolls through New Castle. Then there is the 2013 capital raise, why the money is needed and what does it fund, as well as Axion's circumstances at that time. In short, any really bad news at this juncture and all bets are off. Right now Axion is a little like a person with a 3 wheel vegetable cart. It exists; it cannot now be unmade. If PbC's various electrical virtues are genuine, and those virtues remain lacking in other devices, and those virtues can fill real unmet needs, PbC will survive. It will endure. It will proliferate. The law of economic gravity will see to it. Now of course Axion itself may choke, it may take on water, it may yet even drown. But at this advanced point in its progress, it seems very hard to imagine that PbC itself could really ever die with it---I don't think it's a stretch to say that it's now reached a kind of independent viability. The fundamental value has been created. Miraculous in its own way even as a birth. And it will live on with or without Axion. But as Axion has shown itself to be such a tenacious parent, and strong swimmer, in so many currents, I gotta think our vegetables are safe. ;)

Speaking from a bit of self knowledge, (having one of the denser heads ever to hit a sidewalk) I believe one big pitfall for newbee tech / greentech / geewhiz-tech investors is to get all enamoured and loved up about some new cool technology wow gold and wanna throw money at it (cough cough, solar, Beacon, fuel cells, Li-ion) in the form of this shiny new stock or that cool little company. without ever really examining the business case and figuring out just how it is that they're going to make $money$. Now I know with that I've just re-earned my Captain Obvious bars, with gold clusters, but seems to me that there's always a new crop of dreamy eyed youngsters much too ready to be parted with their money for the next cool idea in investing, who can always stand to benefit from a fresh intake of sage wisdom about what it takes for a business to actually make it to the promised land. Perhaps a natural follow up to the valley of death themed article?

For the past 20-25 years investors have been spoiled. You just ride trends. As these bubbles have come and gone, we now see lower volume, remove the bots their 22 second hold or remove their bogus orders and investing is entirely different. Not saying you can't trade, but it is much more difficult now. I believe you seen a bit of delayed reaction yesterday as the NS order got attention and brought in a bit of buying after some DD was done. This could continue gradually and slowly even with some selling.

One the things relative newcomers to Axion have a hard time grasping is the way monthly trading activity has changed over the last four years. It's not enough to grab the broader market's attention yet, but the trend is heading in a good direction.

they have had some good reviews too Bang. Jobs said day one, APPL was 5 years ahead of the competition, he was right. You see the value of patents now too. I haven't bought yet because I have been too cautious of a correction. ATT "wants" the Lumina to be successful. The high subsidy on the iPhone is killing them. If we had a big correction or down day, I would gamble on them a bit.

Discussing the risks to AXPW is should be acceptable. Not trolls, but even opinions should be allowed. There is very little hard facts on a company like AXPW as we do not know where they will be or how well the PbC will be accepted into all markets. Axionista's believe in them, but there is stiff competition out there, even without the political boost for EV's. These guys won't roll over or cave into AXPW's business model easily. Thus, we have a stock less than .50. the market knows utilities are slow, and the 'repayment" selling electricity back to the grid has to be solved/at what price. Since '08, it's just a different environment. They did not have to take risk on a small cap. This probably changes over the next year as other general mkt. trends totally changes.

Kirk was the first President of Axion and knows the PbC technology well. Long-term storage is a wonderful ideal, but prohibitively expensive. Diurnal storage, for example, is a huge economic challenge because you only get one revenue event per day. Off-grid PV applications, which can never recharge at 10 cent power, have very different characteristics. There may be seasonal weeks of fog or snow cover or rain with very low solar irradiance. A high self-discharge rate may be higher than the minimal PV output, and eventually leading to excessive discharge which cannot be recovered. This can also happen to an unoccupied RV or boat that does not have a grid connection or a reliable renewable energy generator. Your comment about storing power for months is spot on for grid-tied applications. An off-grid unoccupied house, vessel or vehicle needs to have the batteries completely full when the owners arrive, even if the prior weeks have had no charging opportunities whatsoever. There are frequent cases of houses, unoccupied for six winter months, that have zero battery in the spring because of "trivial" self-discharges (a combination of users who did not RTFM and hubristic engineers who assume their circuits do not waste power) that destroy the battery bank.

48, you are right about the gasoline (and carburetors) problems. Once the battery charge gets to zero, there is not any juice to control the charger, so the batteries cannot recharge. I am not aware of any large PV inverter charging system that can cold start with dead batteries. [A simple, single pane PV often has an inefficient regulator that cold starts]A well-designed system uses minimal power, and can be put into unoccupied mode to reduce parasitic losses even more. Sunlight in December in the far north is extremely limited. Rain (even drizzle) usually has zero useful solar output; just because there is light enough to see does not mean the panels are producing sufficient voltage to charge a battery. The off-grid market is pretty small, and not relevant to Axion's target markets. Axion's Powercube I assume has significant self-discharge (for cooling, BMS and control). That application is never going to run for more than a few hours, and mostly for a few minutes without access to diesel power, so self-discharge is irrelevant.

It is surely not favorable for PbC to be used in applications like camera batteries because people may leave the camera on shelf for months before reuse it. And the self-discharge rate of PbC is just like that of a capacitor. But over the years, they have introduced a new generation of low self-discharge (less than 20% per year) Ni-MH battery with only 1900 mah. I think this is a good example where in a specific market low self-discharge rate beats other virtues such as energy density and power.

D Lane,My understanding from Kirk is that he doesn't hold stock in Axion anymore and goes out of his way to make sure that posters on Yahoo understand that he is never giving advice as to whether they should invest in Axion or not. He kind of wears it as a badge of honor that his comments are clean of any self interest, since he doesn't hold a major stock position, and so he can give his technical opinions without any question of motives (or at least no motive of trying to move the stock price with his comments for his own benefit.)

>Rick Krementz . I, too, would like more detail but the high self-discharge has been a known factor for quite a while. This info from KT is the first I can remember someone putting a number to it. I could be wrong (a good likelihood). It is why I've always considered the PbC in mixed battery configurations as the ultimate solution. This "feeling" is without any real basis for from which to build. I've never thought it was a show stopper for any applications other than long duration discharge, like a microgrid used for UPS, and needing to recharge quickly when opportunity presents itself. Most of the things I bought into Axion for don't sit idle for a month or more. So much I still don't know.

This is from a recent recall of Daimler made hybrid buses. The batteries are from A123. OVER TIME, PARTICULATE DEBRIS CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE HYBRID SYSTEM'S LI-ION STORAGE SYSTEM (LI-ION ESS). ACCUMULATED DEBRIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE CAN BREACH THE ELECTRICAL ISOLATION OF THE HIGH VOLTAGE BATTERY PACK. I hate to admit it, but I've never read an owner's buy wow gold manual cover to cover. RoseWater Energy Group is pleased to announce that in conjunction with one of Ontario's largest LDC's, is sponsoring a study on the full impact of widely distributed residential storage on the electrical grid. The study will encompass the effect on rate, reliability, maintenance, and power quality. The ultimate goal is to determine the full financial value of residential storage. The product that will be used in the study is the RoseWater Residential Storage System. The system incorporates Axion Powers revolutionary PbC batteries and is designed as a "plug and play" device that will also incorporate renewable energy sources as well as grid connections."We're encouraged with the overall market acceptance we have been receiving and to have an LDC of this caliber be willing to partner with us, says a lot," said Joe Piccirilli of RoseWater."Storage is a key enabler for wide spread implementation and proliferation of green energy sources. "None of this will impact our current marketing and selling strategy which we expect to be quite robust when we hit the market later this fall."

I get the sense that JR is developing a product to sell rather than a retrofit to use. The difference between the two is important. It just couldn't find a battery that could stand up to the strain. At least initially, NS's only interest seems to be making locomotives for their own use according to their own design. That's a much lower bar than making a product that you plan to sell to somebody else and warranty in the process.

If you want to squeeze all the things required for a hybrid onto a single chassis you're automatically deciding to use less battery power and a much more compact battery system. As soon as you add an engine the dynamic changes and it's less clear who wins. All things being equal I'd rather be the battery of choice for simple and let the others fight over complexity.

I don't know how big the body of water is we need to drain, but looking at accumulation distribution, Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume technical indicators the steady selling since the 1st of April is clear as a bell. Obviously for the sellers .43 is a magic number and .42 is acceptable. Thankfully the selling is obviously being professionally managed, but as for any significant upward movement it is very unlikely until these people are gone or Axion makes a blockbuster announcement. The only thing I know to do now is watch the charts for signs of sustained upward movement without large blocks being sold at low-ball numbers in relationship to the current high. Whoever these sellers are I believe they don't want to be in the stock as the next capital raise looms and another "going concern" statement be comes necessary no matter how rosy the picture looks going forward. If they get out now with a safe 20% in the till they can set back, see what happens going forward knowing they can get back in if they want on the next capital raise at a discount. We have no idea whether the sellers class bought 20% of the offering or 90%. In my experience, flippers rarely account for more than 25% to 30% of the investors in a deal. The last deal Axion did could vary from what I'd consider normal. We do not and cannot know whether the sellers will run out of stock tomorrow or run out of stock at the end of June. The only certainty is they will run out and then the dynamic will change.

Bang, I would say that this next CC is going to be all about TG putting real meat on the 300% revenue ramp and cash-flow breakeven bones. If he backtracks on his last CC's statements, that won't be good. The folks you're speaking of will do exactly what you say and more of it. But if TG reiterates, reinforces, and substantiates his statements, then I think the fence sitting bleachers will thin out greatly. And on the outside chance he even expands the revenue prediction and accelerates the breakeven timeline? Strap in.
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